Knowledge Base Search: 665 results

MYRIAD-EU - A Flood Risk Framework Capturing the Seasonality of and Dependence Between Rainfall and Sea Levels—An Application to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

State-of-the-art flood hazard maps in coastal cities are often obtained from simulating coastal or pluvial events separately. This method does not account for the seasonality of flood drivers and their mutual dependence. In this article, we include the impact of these two factors in a computationally efficient probabilistic framework for flood risk calculation, using Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) as a case study. HCMC can be flooded subannually by high tide, rainfall, and storm surge events or a combination thereof during the monsoon or tropical cyclones. Using long gauge observations, we stochastically model 10,000 years of rainfall and sea level events based on their monthly distributions, dependence structure and cooccurrence rate. The impact from each stochastic event is then obtained from a damage function built from selected rainfall and sea level combinations, leading to an expected annual damage (EAD) of $1.02 B (95th annual damage percentile of $2.15 B). We find no dependence for most months and large differences in expected damage across months ($36–166 M) driven by the seasonality of rainfall and sea levels. Excluding monthly variability leads to a serious underestimation of the EAD by 72–83%. This is because high-probability flood events, which can happen multiple times during the year and are properly captured by our framework, contribute the most to the EAD. This application illustrates the potential of our framework and advocates for the inclusion of flood drivers' dynamics in coastal risk assessments.

  • Environment and Biodiversity
  • Good Governance
  • Regulatory/standards/targets measures
  • Preparedness

MYRIAD-EU - Breaking the Silos: an online serious game for multi-risk disaster risk reduction (DRR) management

The increased complexity of disaster risk, due to climate change, expected population growth and the increasing interconnectedness of disaster impacts across communities and economic sectors, requires disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures that are better able to address these growing complexities. Especially disaster risk management (DRM) practitioners need to be able to oversee these complexities. Nonetheless, in the traditional risk paradigm, there is a strong focus on single hazards and the risk faced by individual communities and economic sectors. The development of the game and how it aims to support a shift from a single-risk to a multi-risk paradigm are discussed in detail. Breaking the Silos is a serious game designed to support various stakeholders (including policy makers, risk managers, researchers) in understanding and managing the complexities of DRR measures in a multi-risk (multi-hazard) setting, thereby moving away from hazard-silo thinking. What sets Breaking the Silos apart from other disaster risk games is its explicit focus on multi-risk challenges. The game includes different hazard types and intensities (and their interactions), different impact indicators, and (a) synergies between DRR measures. Moreover, the spread of expert knowledge between different participants and the high levels of freedom and randomness in the game design contribute to a realistic game. The game was launched during the World Bank GFDRR's Understanding Risk 2020 Forum and later played again with the same settings with researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich. Feedback from the pre- and post-game surveys indicates that Breaking the Silos was found useful by the participants in increasing awareness of the complexities of risk.

  • Good Governance
  • Regulatory/standards/targets measures
  • Awareness raising
  • Knowledge creation
  • Preparedness